Thundershowers have begun over south and east India, Many places have received heavy rainfall over the last three days, thundershowers will continue for the next week or so before a break for about a week and then one more spell of thundershowers over most of peninsula India.
April and May rainfall is expected to be good over interior south of the country.
The only bad news coming in so far from many international models is an impending el nino phase which will coincide with the onset of the south west monsoon. Rains so far are forecast to be between 70 - 80% of the LPA (long period average). Droughts are forecast for many parts of madhya maharashtra, madhya pradesh and North Andhra pradesh althought the North eastern states which missed out last year are forecast to get 100 - 110% of its LPA this year.
These numbers are based on preliminary forecasts from the meteorological departments in Australia, Europe and the US and could change as the monsoon draws near.
