Saturday, September 10, 2016

Final Month of South west monsoon and August




The monsoon has been below normal in August over most of the country except for excess rainfall over the plains and Rajasthan.


Southern India bore the brunt of this deficit with Kerala recording one of its lowest August rainfalls since 1980. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu also not doing so well with most dams almost reaching dead storage levels.


The east coast and the bay was busy with quite a few UAC's(Upper Air Circulations) & Low pressure areas forming almost every week. Unfortunately for Southern India the systems all moved North-North west and except for a few thundershowers, Andhra and Telangana have been left high and dry.


September did not show too much promise as well with another system forming near coastal Andhra but moving North again. The first half of September seems to be moving in the same direction as August except if a system currently in the Bay strengthens and is expected to make landfall over Andhra Pradesh and this should bring good rainfall to parts of inland peninsula India.


However, the extreme south of the country which includes parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka will still have mainly dry weather.


With withdrawal beginning over Pakistan, North India will have its last week or so of rainfall as the axis of monsoon trough still persists over gangetic Uttar pradesh and Bihar moving north towards Haryana.


East India has beein in a drought of sorts with Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur & Tripura all receiving deficient rainfall over the whole monsoon since June.


South India should see prospects improving after the 15th of the month with another system in the bay expected to strengthen and cross land near machlipatnam and should bring widespread rainfall to most of the southern Peninsula barring Extreme south and interior Tamil Nadu. With the monsoon retreating the axis of monsoon trough will also begin to start moving southwards.


I look forward to a Mixed month for different parts of the country and see the monsoon exit the entire country by the 9th/10th of October 2016 and this will also commence the North East Monsoon and the raint season of Tamil Nadu and Andhra.


Enjoy the last of South West Monsoon 2016, Stay Safe.



Next report on 10th October, monsoon withdrawal and NE Monsoon onset report

Friday, June 10, 2016

Monsoon Has finally arrived.. Happy Monsoon 2016.


The southwest monsoon has reached Kerala and as a result marked the onset of the monsoon over the Indian sub continent and the start of Monsoon season 2016. 

Heavy to very heavy rainfall has been reported at most places over Kerala and coastal Karnataka over the last 2 days.

As of today the monsoon has covered the whole of Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, most of south interior Karnataka and Rayalseema - The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 14.0°N/ Long.60.0°E, Lat. 14.0°N/ Long.70.0°E, Honavar, Anantapur, Ongole, Lat.16.0°N/ Long. 85.0°E, Lat. 17.0°N/ Long.90.0°E and Lat. 18.0°N/ Long.94.0°E.










The monsoon is making its way up the west coast quickly and should cover entire Goa and parts of coastal Maharashtra in the next 48 hours. On the east coast the monsoon has made its way up to Myanmar and parts of north-east India, The Northeastern states will start receiving heavy rain from today onward.








Monsoon is expected to make its way up quickly helped by twin systems / upper air cyclonic circulations in the bay of Bengal and Arabian sea although cross equatorial moisture has decreased.


Monsoon winds will keep moving north although it will take between 48-72 hours for it to strengthen again and provide heavy rainfall over the country.








We expect the monsoon to cover most of the country and reach Kolkata by the 11th of June and Mumbai by the 13th of June and Delhi by the 29th/30th of June.



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Next Update 27th June - Monsoon onset & 1st phase performance of monsoon report..

Friday, May 27, 2016

South-West Monsoon Update 2016




The South-West Monsoon winds after reaching Andaman on 18th is currently stalled a little north and west of the Andaman islands at Lat.5.0°N / Long.86.0°E, Lat.8.0°N / Long.87.0°E,  Lat.13.0°N / Long.91.0°E and Lat.16.0°N / Long.95.0°E.





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This current stall in the winds are because of the Cyclone 'ROANU' which pulled monsoon moisture and disrupted winds over the Bay of Bengal.

With 'ROANU' gone and winds over the bay gaining strength the monsoon has picked up speed and intensity and is making its way up to the coast of Kerala.

The conditions required for monsoon onset declaration are being met with regular pre monsoon showers and rainfall reported around Kerala and the westerlies in the 925hPa upto 600hPa over the latitudes 5-10 degrees N Latitudes between 10 - 20 knots. This accompanied with strong cross equatorial moisture flow will ensure strengthening of the monsoon says South Indian weatherman.




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With temperatures over North-West and Central India expected to rise over the next 2-3 days the monsoon winds should move quickly and cover South India on time.





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South Indian weatherman says Monsoon is expected to reach Kerala and monsoon declaration expected by the 08th - 09th of June which is over a week late and should cover most of south India up to parts of Maharashtra by the 15th, before a brief lull again will stall the winds for a week or so before moving into the rest of the country.




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Pre Monsoon showers will peak over South India between the 28th and until monsoon sets in. Heavy thundershowers & rainfall expected over Bangalore & rest of interior Karnataka & Tamil Nadu from the 28th.



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Next Update from Southindianweatherman on 10th June 2016.....



Tuesday, May 10, 2016

First Depression of the year coming up in Mid May....



The area of convection previously located in the South East Arabian sea has moved eastwards and formed into a Low pressure area today the 14th of May 2016 near the southwest coast of Sri Lanka.












The area would move north-north eastwards over the next two days or so and strengthen into a depression /  deep depression by the 16th.








 It would move northwards skirting the east cost of India. Rainfall expected across most of south India from the 16th onwards.







The system after dumping heavy rainfall across the southern peninsula and weakening into a Low pressure would emerge again into the Bay of Bengal and strengthen again into a deep depression or Cyclone by the 19th.









It would then move North eastwards before crashing into West Bengal and Bangladesh by the 21st. Expect Pre-monsoon showers to peak over most of the country by the 23rd - 24th of May.













This system will help pull in monsoon moisture & winds from the bay and the monsoon will cover the Andaman and Nicobar islands between 17th - 19th May, Onset over Kerala is expected around the 30th of May 2016.










Heavy to very Heavy rainfall expected along the west coast of India - Kerala & Coastal Karnataka between 15th - 18th May. Also Heavy rainfall expected along east coast as well from Nagapattinam to Machlipatnam between the same dates.


Interior Tamil Nadu and Karnataka will also have moderate to heavy rainfall from the 15th onwards.






Next update - Monsoon onset update 28th May.






Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Pre monsoon showers have begun..



Pre-monsoon showers have begun throughout the country including South Interior Karnataka.





Current satellite image showing thunderstorms over south and east India. coming weeks will see an increase in rainfall activity across the country - IMD / South Indian weatherman.




Outlook for the rest of the month looks very promising, heavy thundershowers expected along west coast and interior Tamil nadu and Karnataka reaching up to Telangana, Madhya Maharashtra and Madhya pradesh, to the east, West Bengal and the rest of NE states will receive heavy rainfall with possibility of squalls in the region.












The only region which will miss out is the east coast of the country from southern Tamil nadu through to Orissa.


Tamil nadu will also see the start of peak summer or 'Khattri' and temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 40's by mid May.











Heat wave regions of the last month should see temperatures fall by 2-3 degrees over the next week or so.




Next report (Monsoon onset report) in 3rd week of May.










Monday, April 18, 2016

Much needed April showers to begin shortly





The Much needed, eagerly awaited and long overdue April showers for 2016 over Bangalore and the rest of South Interior Karnataka will begin shortly.




With maximum temperatures hovering between 37 - 38 degrees over the city and minimums around 25 degrees there has been no respite from the sweltering heat even in the nights. 



These Vagaries when compared to last year when the city received over 200mm rainfall for the month of April alone make the heat feel much much worse.



However, some hope is around the corner, with a slight change in wind direction and the formation of a trough near the comorin area the coming days from the 19th onwards will see increase in clouds towards evening  / night. Wind speeds will also increase slightly during the evenings.



Isolated to scattered light thundershowers can be expected around South interior Karnataka from 19th April evening onwards.



An increase in thunderstorm activity is expected around the 21st - 23rd after which the thunderstorm activity will decrease again for a week or so to pick up again at the end of the month and beginning of May.



Total rainfall expected for April is around 80mm, slight reduction in minimum temperatures from 20th onwards.




Next update in first week of May

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Forecasted to be weak and below normal, Monsoon throws up surprises.



South West Monsoon 2015 has till today the 23rd of June 2015 covered more than half the country with the northern limit lying on From West to East - Veraval, Surat, Ratlam, Bhopal, Ambikapur,

Bhagalpur and Supaul, still 5 - 6 days later than normal, although with twin systems in the Bay of 
Bengal and Arabian sea is expected to reach Punjab by the 28th or 29th of June about 3 days earlier 
than normal which will be a big relief for farmers and administration up north. 




The big news though is that the monsoon is currently in excess of 15% for the month and season so far which has caught many by surprise after the outlook by the IMD which was taking into account the effects of an el nino.





The main reasons contributing to the excess and active phase of the monsoon is a mildly strong MJO 

or Madden-Julian Oscillation - An equatorial Indian ocean system of currents that oscillates east to west and at different levels of intensity. The current MJO phase could last till the 26th or 27th of the month.



One more factor for the strong monsoon is a neutral IOD or Indian ocean dipole - again an anomaly in the sea surface temperatures in the Indian ocean which normally tends to counteract the El Nino. The IOD for week beginning the 22nd June showed it moving into a positive phase which should be good for the monsoon for the next week or so as well.





To Summarize, Monsoon should cover most of the country by the end of June with twin systems in 

the bay and Arabian sea, temperatures still very high in Rajasthan and Pakistan with the worst heat 
wave in decades, And a favorable MJO and IOD and a weak el Nino currently.




The next 9-10 days would continue to bring heavy to very heavy rainfall along west coast and 

central India, South India will see a decline in rainfall from today.




Forecast for coming weeks and rest of the monsoon.


Decline in rainfall over south India for next 2 weeks.Increase in rainfall over central and North India.




Strengthening of El Nino and weakening(neutral phase) of MJO and IOD around Second week of July.




July could see below normal rainfall over most of India except for a few places in West coast and North India.