Forecasted to be weak and below normal, Monsoon throws up surprises.

South West Monsoon 2015 has till today the 23rd of June 2015 covered more than half the country with the northern limit lying on From West to East - Veraval, Surat, Ratlam, Bhopal, Ambikapur,
Bhagalpur and Supaul, still 5 - 6 days later than normal, although with twin systems in the Bay of 
Bengal and Arabian sea is expected to reach Punjab by the 28th or 29th of June about 3 days earlier 
than normal which will be a big relief for farmers and administration up north. 




The big news though is that the monsoon is currently in excess of 15% for the month and season so far which has caught many by surprise after the outlook by the IMD which was taking into account the effects of an el nino.




The main reasons contributing to the excess and active phase of the monsoon is a mildly strong MJO 
or Madden-Julian Oscillation - An equatorial Indian ocean system of currents that oscillates east to west and at different levels of intensity. The current MJO phase could last till the 26th or 27th of the month.



One more factor for the strong monsoon is a neutral IOD or Indian ocean dipole - again an anomaly in the sea surface temperatures in the Indian ocean which normally tends to counteract the El Nino. The IOD for week beginning the 22nd June showed it moving into a positive phase which should be good for the monsoon for the next week or so as well.




To Summarize, Monsoon should cover most of the country by the end of June with twin systems in 
the bay and Arabian sea, temperatures still very high in Rajasthan and Pakistan with the worst heat 
wave in decades, And a favorable MJO and IOD and a weak el Nino currently.




The next 9-10 days would continue to bring heavy to very heavy rainfall along west coast and 
central India, South India will see a decline in rainfall from today.




Forecast for coming weeks and rest of the monsoon.

Decline in rainfall over south India for next 2 weeks.Increase in rainfall over central and North India.



Strengthening of El Nino and weakening(neutral phase) of MJO and IOD around Second week of July.



July could see below normal rainfall over most of India except for a few places in West coast and North India.

South west monsoon Withdrawal phase to begin soon

The south west monsoon should begin retreating from western Pakistan from the 5th of September after the feeble western disturbance fizzles out.

according to PMD : Seasonal low lies over Northwest Balochistan and adjoining areas. Monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea are penetrating into central and upper parts of the country. A westerly wave is also prevailing over upper parts of the country.

First signs of monsoon withdrawal from the Indian mainland would occur after the 10th of September, although with the low pressure hanging around Uttar Pradesh and the axis of the trough extending all the way to Amritsar withdrawal could stand still for about a week before gathering strength again. 

The monsoon is expected to withdraw from the entire country around the 10th - 12th of October very close to its normal withdrawal date of the 15th.



The withdrawal phase is going to provide heavy rainfall to the southern states with a low pressure area forecast in the bay around the 10th of September. Heavy rainfall is forecast for the first 2 weeks of September for Karnataka, North & Coastal Tamil Nadu, Andhra pradesh and coastal Maharashtra.



Do not get carried away with dry air over Pakistan in water vapor images, a lot of other factors go in to calculating the withdrawal.