Much needed April showers to begin shortly

The Much needed, eagerly awaited and long overdue April showers for 2016 over Bangalore and the rest of South Interior Karnataka will begin shortly.



With maximum temperatures hovering between 37 - 38 degrees over the city and minimums around 25 degrees there has been no respite from the sweltering heat even in the nights. 


These Vagaries when compared to last year when the city received over 200mm rainfall for the month of April alone make the heat feel much much worse.


However, some hope is around the corner, with a slight change in wind direction and the formation of a trough near the comorin area the coming days from the 19th onwards will see increase in clouds towards evening  / night. Wind speeds will also increase slightly during the evenings.


Isolated to scattered light thundershowers can be expected around South interior Karnataka from 19th April evening onwards.


An increase in thunderstorm activity is expected around the 21st - 23rd after which the thunderstorm activity will decrease again for a week or so to pick up again at the end of the month and beginning of May.


Total rainfall expected for April is around 80mm, slight reduction in minimum temperatures from 20th onwards.



Next update in first week of May

South west monsoon Withdrawal phase to begin soon

The south west monsoon should begin retreating from western Pakistan from the 5th of September after the feeble western disturbance fizzles out.

according to PMD : Seasonal low lies over Northwest Balochistan and adjoining areas. Monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea are penetrating into central and upper parts of the country. A westerly wave is also prevailing over upper parts of the country.

First signs of monsoon withdrawal from the Indian mainland would occur after the 10th of September, although with the low pressure hanging around Uttar Pradesh and the axis of the trough extending all the way to Amritsar withdrawal could stand still for about a week before gathering strength again. 

The monsoon is expected to withdraw from the entire country around the 10th - 12th of October very close to its normal withdrawal date of the 15th.



The withdrawal phase is going to provide heavy rainfall to the southern states with a low pressure area forecast in the bay around the 10th of September. Heavy rainfall is forecast for the first 2 weeks of September for Karnataka, North & Coastal Tamil Nadu, Andhra pradesh and coastal Maharashtra.



Do not get carried away with dry air over Pakistan in water vapor images, a lot of other factors go in to calculating the withdrawal.

Monsoon active phase to continue

After 2 weeks of vigorous rainfall over most parts of the country excluding parts of Tamil Nadu, North and south interior Karnataka, the north eastern states and Northern Rajasthan,  floods have been reported from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar pradesh, Jammu, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and with release of surplus water from dams in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu a possibility of floods in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu as well.

The vigorous phase has been downgraded to an active phase with extremely heavy rainfall subsiding over much of the western ghats and north and central india. After a brief lull between 4th to 7th August, rather heavy rainfall is set to commence over the southern peninsula, although the western ghats may see below normal rainfall for the period through to the third week of august, currently parched regions of tamil nadu should see some rainfall in the second week of august, as will most of interior andhra pradesh extending north, north west into maharashtra and madhya pradesh.

 The North eastern states should start seeing normal rainfall and expect big numbers from the bigwigs of mawsynram and cherrapunji from the second week of august. 

A warning here that rainfall will not be as good as it was in the second half of July. 

Apart from this, A negative IOD and neutral ENSO could prevent too much moisture building up over the bay, most long range forecasts show a neutral IOD developing by October and the neutral ENSO conditions continuing into January. 

Coming to the cities of Chennai and Bangalore, Chennai will see irregular, scattered thunder showers on approximately 2 days a week through August, maximum temperatures will remain between 31 - 36 degrees through the month and minimums between 23 - 28 degrees respectively. 

Bangalore will have thundershowers in spells of 2 - 3 days and then a break for 2 days and then rain for 2 days again. Rain should be mainly widespread but could be isolated on days. Maximum rainfall day could see around 70mm after the second week of August, considering August is the third wettest month for bangalore it needs an average of 120mm for the month. Maximum temperatures will be around the 24 - 30 degrees mark and minimum temperatures will be around the 18 - 22 degrees mark respectively. Wind speeds will begin to decrease after the 7th or 8th of August in bangalore and aid in Thunderstorm development although it will increase again after the 15th and fall again after the 23rd.

Please do visit the Stanley reservoir, it is a beautiful sight to see it full and that too with water gushing out the other side. A very rare sight indeed. Be safe and God Bless!!!

Arrival of the South West Monsoon

The South West Monsoon has arrived over the Andaman and Nicobar islands. IMD will declare its onset within the next 24 hours. 

Two low pressures are forecast to come up on either side of the  peninsula within the next 72 - 96 hours and drag monsoon winds onto the mainland. However, the Arabian sea low is forecast to end up in Oman and could cause a delay of about 2 days in the onset over Kerala. The North-West of the country is heating up considerably and the annual Low pressure area will form over parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, further strengthening Monsoon flows on the mainland. 

Expected date of Monsoon onset over Kerala is between 29th and 31st of May.

End of NEM very near. Boxing day depression not ruled out!!!

The last easterly wave lasted for just about 3 days and did not bring the rain that was expected. since then, a prolonged dry spell has taken over the south except for the extreme south of Tamil Nadu. An easterly wave was expected to arrive over the bay around the 16th of December, but with the formation of a depression/cyclone over the west pacific, moisture is being pulled there. Most models do suggest one more easterly wave to hit the country but that would be only after the exit of that cyclone over the pacific which could also blow left over moisture into the bay for one last hurrah for the NE monsoon. 'Boxing Day' has always been associated with bad weather somewhere in the world, and hopes are high that this time a cyclone or at least a depression comes up in the bay. I am hoping for a dry Christmas and a wet week from the 26th onwards.