Final Month of South west monsoon and August

The monsoon has been below normal in August over most of the country except for excess rainfall over the plains and Rajasthan.

Southern India bore the brunt of this deficit with Kerala recording one of its lowest August rainfalls since 1980. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu also not doing so well with most dams almost reaching dead storage levels.

The east coast and the bay was busy with quite a few UAC's(Upper Air Circulations) & Low pressure areas forming almost every week. Unfortunately for Southern India the systems all moved North-North west and except for a few thundershowers, Andhra and Telangana have been left high and dry.

September did not show too much promise as well with another system forming near coastal Andhra but moving North again. The first half of September seems to be moving in the same direction as August except if a system currently in the Bay strengthens and is expected to make landfall over Andhra Pradesh and this should bring good rainfall to parts of inland peninsula India.

However, the extreme south of the country which includes parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka will still have mainly dry weather.

With withdrawal beginning over Pakistan, North India will have its last week or so of rainfall as the axis of monsoon trough still persists over gangetic Uttar pradesh and Bihar moving north towards Haryana.

East India has beein in a drought of sorts with Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur & Tripura all receiving deficient rainfall over the whole monsoon since June.

South India should see prospects improving after the 15th of the month with another system in the bay expected to strengthen and cross land near machlipatnam and should bring widespread rainfall to most of the southern Peninsula barring Extreme south and interior Tamil Nadu. With the monsoon retreating the axis of monsoon trough will also begin to start moving southwards.

I look forward to a Mixed month for different parts of the country and see the monsoon exit the entire country by the 9th/10th of October 2016 and this will also commence the North East Monsoon and the raint season of Tamil Nadu and Andhra.

Enjoy the last of South West Monsoon 2016, Stay Safe.


Next report on 10th October, monsoon withdrawal and NE Monsoon onset report

South west monsoon Withdrawal phase to begin soon

The south west monsoon should begin retreating from western Pakistan from the 5th of September after the feeble western disturbance fizzles out.

according to PMD : Seasonal low lies over Northwest Balochistan and adjoining areas. Monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea are penetrating into central and upper parts of the country. A westerly wave is also prevailing over upper parts of the country.

First signs of monsoon withdrawal from the Indian mainland would occur after the 10th of September, although with the low pressure hanging around Uttar Pradesh and the axis of the trough extending all the way to Amritsar withdrawal could stand still for about a week before gathering strength again. 

The monsoon is expected to withdraw from the entire country around the 10th - 12th of October very close to its normal withdrawal date of the 15th.



The withdrawal phase is going to provide heavy rainfall to the southern states with a low pressure area forecast in the bay around the 10th of September. Heavy rainfall is forecast for the first 2 weeks of September for Karnataka, North & Coastal Tamil Nadu, Andhra pradesh and coastal Maharashtra.



Do not get carried away with dry air over Pakistan in water vapor images, a lot of other factors go in to calculating the withdrawal.

Rains to return to South India & the perseids meteor shower

Rain is forecast for North east and east India, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand and West & South India in the week from 10th - 16th. With some places forecast to get extremely heavy falls. There is a high possibility of a low pressure forming in the bay of Bengal after the 13th of August. Coastal areas of south Tamil Nadu and parts of north interior Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka could receive heavy rainfall. 




Also don't forget to watch the sky for the perseids meteor shower which has already begun and will peak between the 10th - 13th of August. Best watched away from city lights from midnight to dawn. To view the shower look NE towards the Perseus constellation, Scientists say up to 60 falling stars can be seen an hour during these days which could get higher when it peaks. The perseids are the brightest meteor showers of the year and promise to be a spectacle weather permitting..

Monsoon active phase to continue

After 2 weeks of vigorous rainfall over most parts of the country excluding parts of Tamil Nadu, North and south interior Karnataka, the north eastern states and Northern Rajasthan,  floods have been reported from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar pradesh, Jammu, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and with release of surplus water from dams in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu a possibility of floods in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu as well.

The vigorous phase has been downgraded to an active phase with extremely heavy rainfall subsiding over much of the western ghats and north and central india. After a brief lull between 4th to 7th August, rather heavy rainfall is set to commence over the southern peninsula, although the western ghats may see below normal rainfall for the period through to the third week of august, currently parched regions of tamil nadu should see some rainfall in the second week of august, as will most of interior andhra pradesh extending north, north west into maharashtra and madhya pradesh.

 The North eastern states should start seeing normal rainfall and expect big numbers from the bigwigs of mawsynram and cherrapunji from the second week of august. 

A warning here that rainfall will not be as good as it was in the second half of July. 

Apart from this, A negative IOD and neutral ENSO could prevent too much moisture building up over the bay, most long range forecasts show a neutral IOD developing by October and the neutral ENSO conditions continuing into January. 

Coming to the cities of Chennai and Bangalore, Chennai will see irregular, scattered thunder showers on approximately 2 days a week through August, maximum temperatures will remain between 31 - 36 degrees through the month and minimums between 23 - 28 degrees respectively. 

Bangalore will have thundershowers in spells of 2 - 3 days and then a break for 2 days and then rain for 2 days again. Rain should be mainly widespread but could be isolated on days. Maximum rainfall day could see around 70mm after the second week of August, considering August is the third wettest month for bangalore it needs an average of 120mm for the month. Maximum temperatures will be around the 24 - 30 degrees mark and minimum temperatures will be around the 18 - 22 degrees mark respectively. Wind speeds will begin to decrease after the 7th or 8th of August in bangalore and aid in Thunderstorm development although it will increase again after the 15th and fall again after the 23rd.

Please do visit the Stanley reservoir, it is a beautiful sight to see it full and that too with water gushing out the other side. A very rare sight indeed. Be safe and God Bless!!!