Final Month of South west monsoon and August

The monsoon has been below normal in August over most of the country except for excess rainfall over the plains and Rajasthan.

Southern India bore the brunt of this deficit with Kerala recording one of its lowest August rainfalls since 1980. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu also not doing so well with most dams almost reaching dead storage levels.

The east coast and the bay was busy with quite a few UAC's(Upper Air Circulations) & Low pressure areas forming almost every week. Unfortunately for Southern India the systems all moved North-North west and except for a few thundershowers, Andhra and Telangana have been left high and dry.

September did not show too much promise as well with another system forming near coastal Andhra but moving North again. The first half of September seems to be moving in the same direction as August except if a system currently in the Bay strengthens and is expected to make landfall over Andhra Pradesh and this should bring good rainfall to parts of inland peninsula India.

However, the extreme south of the country which includes parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka will still have mainly dry weather.

With withdrawal beginning over Pakistan, North India will have its last week or so of rainfall as the axis of monsoon trough still persists over gangetic Uttar pradesh and Bihar moving north towards Haryana.

East India has beein in a drought of sorts with Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur & Tripura all receiving deficient rainfall over the whole monsoon since June.

South India should see prospects improving after the 15th of the month with another system in the bay expected to strengthen and cross land near machlipatnam and should bring widespread rainfall to most of the southern Peninsula barring Extreme south and interior Tamil Nadu. With the monsoon retreating the axis of monsoon trough will also begin to start moving southwards.

I look forward to a Mixed month for different parts of the country and see the monsoon exit the entire country by the 9th/10th of October 2016 and this will also commence the North East Monsoon and the raint season of Tamil Nadu and Andhra.

Enjoy the last of South West Monsoon 2016, Stay Safe.


Next report on 10th October, monsoon withdrawal and NE Monsoon onset report

First Depression of the year coming up in Mid May....

The area of convection previously located in the South East Arabian sea has moved eastwards and formed into a Low pressure area today the 14th of May 2016 near the southwest coast of Sri Lanka.

The area would move north-north eastwards over the next two days or so and strengthen into a depression /  deep depression by the 16th.

 It would move northwards skirting the east cost of India. Rainfall expected across most of south India from the 16th onwards.

The system after dumping heavy rainfall across the southern peninsula and weakening into a Low pressure would emerge again into the Bay of Bengal and strengthen again into a deep depression or Cyclone by the 19th.

It would then move North eastwards before crashing into West Bengal and Bangladesh by the 21st. Expect Pre-monsoon showers to peak over most of the country by the 23rd - 24th of May.

This system will help pull in monsoon moisture & winds from the bay and the monsoon will cover the Andaman and Nicobar islands between 17th - 19th May, Onset over Kerala is expected around the 30th of May 2016.

Heavy to very Heavy rainfall expected along the west coast of India - Kerala & Coastal Karnataka between 15th - 18th May. Also Heavy rainfall expected along east coast as well from Nagapattinam to Machlipatnam between the same dates.

Interior Tamil Nadu and Karnataka will also have moderate to heavy rainfall from the 15th onwards.





Next update - Monsoon onset update 28th May.