Arrival of the South West Monsoon

The South West Monsoon has arrived over the Andaman and Nicobar islands. IMD will declare its onset within the next 24 hours. 

Two low pressures are forecast to come up on either side of the  peninsula within the next 72 - 96 hours and drag monsoon winds onto the mainland. However, the Arabian sea low is forecast to end up in Oman and could cause a delay of about 2 days in the onset over Kerala. The North-West of the country is heating up considerably and the annual Low pressure area will form over parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, further strengthening Monsoon flows on the mainland. 

Expected date of Monsoon onset over Kerala is between 29th and 31st of May.

End of NEM very near. Boxing day depression not ruled out!!!

The last easterly wave lasted for just about 3 days and did not bring the rain that was expected. since then, a prolonged dry spell has taken over the south except for the extreme south of Tamil Nadu. An easterly wave was expected to arrive over the bay around the 16th of December, but with the formation of a depression/cyclone over the west pacific, moisture is being pulled there. Most models do suggest one more easterly wave to hit the country but that would be only after the exit of that cyclone over the pacific which could also blow left over moisture into the bay for one last hurrah for the NE monsoon. 'Boxing Day' has always been associated with bad weather somewhere in the world, and hopes are high that this time a cyclone or at least a depression comes up in the bay. I am hoping for a dry Christmas and a wet week from the 26th onwards.