Cyclone Mahasen and the Onset of the Monsoon

As forecasted a cyclone formed in the bay which was named Mahasen. Mahasen is expected to make landfall between bakkhali in West bengal and chittagong in Bangladesh. Expected time of landfall is estimated between the morning - evening of the 16th of May. Mahasen is expected to strengthen for another 24 hours possibly reaching a maximum strength of T4.0 by Dvorak technique or category 2 on the saffir - simpson scale before it starts to recurve towards the North-East and weaken before making landfall as a deep depression.

 Rain/Drizzles From Mahasen is Expected along the east cost of India from Nagapattiam to Machilipattinam from the Night of 12th May 2013 to the Evening of 14th May 2013. Rain will be generated from localised Thundershowers as Mahasen pulls moisture and from bands of convection breaking off from the main system and hitting the coast. rainfall will move northwards along the coast as Mahasen makes its way north.

Pre-monsoon showers will continue over interior southern peninsula after the exit of Mahasen on the 17th.

SOUTH WEST MONSOON will reach Andaman islands by the 19th/20th of May 2013 aided by a possible low pressure near the east coast of Sri lanka. Some models also predict a Low pressure in the Arabian sea dragging monsoon winds over the mainland.